Wed, 27 Jul 1994 20:31:49 +0200
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Here is a table showing new nodes minus drop outs. Note that CREN charges
are due in July, so naturally this is when most people drop out. January
(really Christmas) is also a high drop-out month.
8701 61 Back when BITNET was doing well
(...)
9107 -8 First negative ever
9108 -20
(...)
9207 2 About same level as 91
9208 -18
(...)
9301 -52 High score
(...)
9307 -38
9308 -26
9309 -45
9310 -7
9311 -45
9312 -19
9401 -88 New high score
9402 -30
9403 -43
9404 -84
9405 -29
9406 -10
9407 -229 New high score
Projections based on 9307-9309 behaviour:
9408 -157
9409 -271
My personal projections:
9408 -130
9409 -175
Less than 2000 nodes by 9412
While it is fashionable to claim that the problem is due to the death of
proprietary protocols, the real reason for these drop outs is the high
cost of BITNET membership in the US, as evidenced by the fact that people
leave mostly when the bills are due. Some universities pay as much as
$8,000.00/year for NJE connectivity. The actual cost is on the order of
$50-70/node/year, based on an estimate made by EARN, which actually
provides the BITEARN NODES generation and coordination (other networks
collect the data from their members, and ship it to EARN for central
processing). There has been an attempt at starting an independent,
neutral structure to sell just NJE table entries for that kind of prices
(presumably with a minimum cost of $300/year to cover the increased costs
that would result from dealing with 1000 individual organizations rather
than 4-5 large ones). Unfortunately, CREN was able to enforce its
monopoly. Due to downsizing, people are no longer willing to pay $4-8k
yearly for a service that should cost a few hundred, and they are
dropping out en masse. When a regional hub drops out, many of the
downstream nodes follow. Once BITNET goes below critical mass, it will
collapse as there will be no point in being connected any longer.
Eric
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