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Eric Thomas <[log in to unmask]>
Thu, 2 Feb 2006 23:26:22 +0100
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Having worked in academia for 13 years, I suspect that it is still true
today that, given a good reason, and any of my former bosses would be the
first to say that this kind of fee level is a VERY good reason, the
university can simply decide that AOL accounts use the university's e-mail
services at their own risk. If it works, great! If it doesn't, too bad.
After all, the university does provide e-mail accounts for every student,
teacher, etc.

In the commercial world, this just doesn't cut it. If provider 1 can reach
AOL, whereas provider 2 can't, you will pick provider 1. In practice, the
Goodmail fee works like a tax. If you want to be in business, you have to
pay it. If you can't afford it, you can always close shop.

If this works out, the owners of Goodmail will make Bill Gates look like a
pauper. They will be the exclusive recipients of the first tax on e-mail.
Looking at what L-Soft would have to pay if the rumoured rates turn out to
be true, it could turn into a billion dollar business with very moderate
costs, perhaps a staff of a few hundred by then, maybe not even that. Of
course, a free economy abhors this kind of waste. Paying five figures a day
for an identity verification that probably costs a few dollars is something
that only governments get away with, and then only in totalitarian regimes.
This announcement is a great opportunity for, say, Google, to gain market
share from Yahoo and AOL. Or someone, why not VeriSign, could start
providing certification services for a reasonable flat fee, similar to SSL
certificates. AOL might or might not recognize this competing certification
but, as long as enough ISPs do, it will all work out. And frankly, for an
ISP that doesn't happen to have a financial interest in Goodmail, the smart
thing to do is to support as many certification services as possible so that
you gain a reputation as being a no-problem ISP.

A likely scenario is that AOL will end up being marginalized, a position
they have long held in the marketplace, if not to such a dramatic extent.
Ten years ago already, you had ISPs on the one hand, and then AOL, with
their different interface, pricing model, etc. Maybe this is what AOL wants.
Maybe it will work out fine for them. Maybe it won't. Only time will tell.

  Eric

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