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Timothy D Newcomb <[log in to unmask]>
Thu, 2 Feb 2006 16:32:20 -0600
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Of course AOL is may be using this as an alternative revenue stream.....



- Tim

-----Original Message-----
From: LISTSERV list owners' forum [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
On Behalf Of Eric Thomas
Sent: Thursday, February 02, 2006 4:26 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Re: AOL-Goodmail deal: Good Mail or "Goodfellas"?

Having worked in academia for 13 years, I suspect that it is still true
today that, given a good reason, and any of my former bosses would be
the first to say that this kind of fee level is a VERY good reason, the
university can simply decide that AOL accounts use the university's
e-mail services at their own risk. If it works, great! If it doesn't,
too bad.
After all, the university does provide e-mail accounts for every
student, teacher, etc.

In the commercial world, this just doesn't cut it. If provider 1 can
reach AOL, whereas provider 2 can't, you will pick provider 1. In
practice, the Goodmail fee works like a tax. If you want to be in
business, you have to pay it. If you can't afford it, you can always
close shop.

If this works out, the owners of Goodmail will make Bill Gates look like
a pauper. They will be the exclusive recipients of the first tax on
e-mail.
Looking at what L-Soft would have to pay if the rumoured rates turn out
to be true, it could turn into a billion dollar business with very
moderate costs, perhaps a staff of a few hundred by then, maybe not even
that. Of course, a free economy abhors this kind of waste. Paying five
figures a day for an identity verification that probably costs a few
dollars is something that only governments get away with, and then only
in totalitarian regimes.
This announcement is a great opportunity for, say, Google, to gain
market share from Yahoo and AOL. Or someone, why not VeriSign, could
start providing certification services for a reasonable flat fee,
similar to SSL certificates. AOL might or might not recognize this
competing certification but, as long as enough ISPs do, it will all work
out. And frankly, for an ISP that doesn't happen to have a financial
interest in Goodmail, the smart thing to do is to support as many
certification services as possible so that you gain a reputation as
being a no-problem ISP.

A likely scenario is that AOL will end up being marginalized, a position
they have long held in the marketplace, if not to such a dramatic
extent.
Ten years ago already, you had ISPs on the one hand, and then AOL, with
their different interface, pricing model, etc. Maybe this is what AOL
wants.
Maybe it will work out fine for them. Maybe it won't. Only time will
tell.

  Eric

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